The NFL Conference Championships get underway Sunday, setting up the stage with football bets online for Super Bowl LIII. In the AFC Championship Game, the Kansas City Chiefs host the New England Patriots, who are in a rare spot as underdogs.

Here’s a closer look at the odds and betting angles for the AFC Championship:

Spread
Kansas City opened as 3-point favorites for this conference title clash, and the spread has stayed still since with slight adjustments to the juice. Given that New England is an underdog for the first time in 68 games with Tom Brady under center, the public could gravitate toward the Patriots as we get closer to kickoff.

This is a rematch of a Week 6 shootout in Foxborough, which the Patriots won 43-40 on a last-second field goal. New England held a 24-9 halftime lead in that game but the Chiefs battled back and covered as 3.5-point road pups.

Bettors may want to be cautious basing any bets on that outcome since the Patriots have been a different team on the road. New England suffered all five of its loss away from Gillette Stadium and saw a major downtick in its offensive performance, averaging just over 21 points as a visitor.

Arrowhead Stadium is one of the best home-field advantages in football, and the Chiefs will have a deafening crowd behind them Sunday night in Kansas City.

Total
The Over/Under for this game opened at 57 points – 2.5 points lower than their Week 6 meeting. However, once extended forecasts for Kansas City expected temperatures in the mid-teens, bettors started buying up the Under which moved this total as much as two points, down to 55.

While both teams are known for their fantastic offensive attacks – Kansas City ranked No. 1 in scoring and New England finishing No. 4 – the real story behind each of their recent successes has been the stop unit.

The Patriots defense has been remarkable since a Week 11 bye, shutting down their last seven opponents to an average of just under 17 points per game. New England did allow 28 points in their win over the Chargers in the Divisional Round, but the half of those came in garbage time during the fourth quarter.

As for the Chiefs, they looked very good against the Colts in the Divisional Round, shutting down Andrew Luck and limiting Indianapolis to just 13 points. This is a very dangerous defense, and while it does give up big gains, it makes big plays. Kansas City tied for the league lead in sacks with 52 and recorded 27 takeaways on the season, including 12 fumble recoveries.

Bettors will want to keep a close eye on Sunday night’s forecast, especially the wind and how that could impact these passing games as well as kicking and special teams.