The NFL preseason is underway, starting the countdown to Week 1. As the best sports betting sites size up the exhibition results for betting angles and edges, these opening matchups of the regular season could hold the best underdog potential for those who love taking the points.
Here are the best potential upsets of NFL Week 1:
Los Angeles at Carolina (+3, 51)
By now, you must be familiar with the long-running Super Bowl hangover trend when it comes to teams that lost the Big Game. If not, here’s a reminder: Since 2000, teams that lost in the Super Bowl are just 3-16 against the spread in Week 1 of the following season. That doesn’t bode well for the reigning NFC champion Rams.
Carolina comes into 2019 off what was a disappointing finish to last year’s campaign. The Panthers started strong with a 6-2 record but then flopped to a 1-7 finish in the second half of the schedule. Cam Newton’s shoulder is the X-factor but should be at it healthiest in Week 1. Along with RB Christian McCaffery, Cam has WRs D.J. Moore and new addition Chris Hogan, making this one of the shifty offenses in the conference.
If L.A.’s offense sputters like it did in the Super Bowl, Carolina is strong enough on both sides of the ball to keep it close and make the most of the home-field edge in the season opener.
Atlanta at Minnesota (-4, 47.5)
The Falcons didn’t get a fair shake in 2018 after a slew on early-season injuries made their defense unrecognizable. Atlanta battled hard to a 7-9 record, riding a dynamic offensive attack paced by QB Matt Ryan and All-Pro receiver Julio Jones. The Falcons have a surplus of scoring option beyond Jones as well, including second-year WR Calvin Ridley and TE Austin Hooper.
The Vikings offense fell short of expectations last season and should Kirk Cousins not improve on his 2018 numbers, this hungry Falcons defense could be the difference. Minnesota has a stout stop unit of its own, but they’re getting older by the game and Atlanta’s arsenal of options in Dirk Koetter’s new system could be too much.
Houston at New Orleans (-7, 53.5)
This Monday Night Football game is a gem, with Houston presenting a tough challenge for a Saints squad playing some pissed-off football after getting hosed by the now-infamous no-call on the pass interference in the NFC Championship. The Texans have the offense to stand toe-to-toe with New Orleans, with Deshaun Watson under center and his dynamic receiving corps healthy – which is something he didn’t have often in 2018.
The Saints will always have a shot of winning the ball game with Drew Brees taking snaps and WR Michael Thomas catching passes. The real measure will be which defense can get a stop. New Orleans was solid in 2018 and record 49 sacks on the year – tied for fifth. Houston posted 43 sacks and ranked fifth in points allowed, giving up only 19.8 per game. Even with those numbers a bit inflated due to a soft schedule, seven points seems too much to give for the home side in Week 1.